Tropical Storm Erick set to Become Eastern Pacific’s First – and the Earliest – Major Named Hurricane of the Season
The eastern Pacific continues its tropical tear with the fifth tropical storm of the season already in the books and the second hurricane on the way.
AccuWeather meteorologists believe Tropical Storm Erick will rapidly strengthen over the next couple of days. It will quickly reach hurricane intensity and become the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern and Western Hemisphere so far this year before approaching the southwestern coast of Mexico.
On the heels of Dalila, Tropical Storm Erick formed off the coast of Mexico early Tuesday morning and is forecast to become the second hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season in a matter of hours. This is the earliest fifth-named storm since July 9, 1956. The average date for the fifth-named storm is July 23.
With now five tropical storms and one hurricane already history for the basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the fourth tropical storm does not form until mid-July, and the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26. Barbara briefly strengthened to a hurricane back on Sunday, June 8. Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. This new storm is forecast to eclipse that intensity as it approaches the coast and populated areas.
“We expect Erick to slowly drift northwestward and become a hurricane prior to the end of the June 17 calendar day,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “We believe Erick will rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico,” DaSilva said, “Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding.”
Factoring in the possibilities of intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current rainstorm is a 3, but that could climb based on how quickly and how much Erick strengthens and exactly where it approaches the Mexico coast.
How much rain and wind occur to the north and east of the center will depend on the amount of strengthening prior to landfall later this week. Both heavy rain and gusty winds will reach Mexico in advance of the center of the storm. Enough rain is likely to fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Strong winds will buffet the coast, generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America. In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, yet another tropical rainstorm may unfold west of Central America prior to the end of the month (June 24-27).
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