Inside Story

Atlantic hurricane season 2025 is almost here and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says a “confluence of factors” are set to fuel tropical cyclones in coming months. NOAA officials said to prepare for danger now as they released a forecast that predicts a 60% chance of an “above-normal hurricane season.”

As USA Today reports, specifically, NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.

Before announcing the 2025 outlook, NOAA’s acting administrator Laura Grimm said last year’s outlook was “right on the money.” In 2024, 18 named storms formed, including devastating Hurricanes Helene and Milton. With more than 400 fatalities, 2024 was the nation’s deadliest hurricane season since 2005, said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan. It was also the third-costliest on record, after 2017 and 2005.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and continues through November 30. The first storm name will be Andrea.

Why the above-average forecast?

The season is expected to be above average due to a “confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes,” NOAA said in a media release.

“ENSO” is short for “El Niño – Southern Oscillation,” the overall term for the El Niño / La Niña climate cycle that affect weather worldwide. “ENSO-Neutral” means neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. “All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA said.

Meteorologist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami, writing on X, said that it was a “pretty reasonable outlook for the season from NOAA. I’m a little surprised they are this confident that we will be above average but the fact that we seem likely to be cool neutral ENSO at worst for peak season means that (wind) shear should be pretty low.” He added that the Atlantic Ocean temperatures will probably determine if the season is closer to the lower numbers or the higher numbers of storms in the prediction.

What do other Hurricane Season 2025 Forecasts say?

Other top forecasters are in consensus, also predicting an active season. Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team, led by Phil Klotzbach, predicted 17 total named storms, of which 9 will be hurricanes, in its April forecast. AccuWeather’s forecast, which came out in March, calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 7-10 will be hurricanes.

The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020.

Though no tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic or Pacific so far this year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical depression could form in late May in the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Mexico. It’s too soon to say if the system would impact any land areas.

The Eastern Pacific Basin is Expected to be Below-Average

NOAA forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific Basin, saying that a below-average season was most likely. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.

Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

When is the Best Time to Prepare for a Hurricane?

The best time to prepare for a hurricane is before hurricane season begins, the National Hurricane Center said. It is vital to understand your home’s vulnerability to storm surge, flooding, and wind. Here is your checklist of things to do before hurricane seasons begins.

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Photo Credit: NASA images / Shutterstock.com